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Table III.
Comparison of the predicted values with seroprevalence data observed in African and European wild birds (used for model calibration), incidence data observed in African sentinel chickens and annual infection incidence estimated in African and European horses (used to compute bite relative risk in incidental hosts).
| Animals | Date | Pop.d | Observed or estimated data |
Predicted data | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datae | Rates (95% CIf) | References | ||||
| Wild birdsa | ||||||
| Wet African area | 15 Nov | R | 6/51 | 0.12 (0.04–0.24) | [15] | 0.10 |
| M | 6/201 | 0.03 (0.01–0.06) | [15] | 0.05 | ||
| Dry African area | 1 Oct | R+L | 11/152 | 0.07 (0.04–0.13) | [15] | 0.07 |
| European area | 15 Apr | R | 4/271 | 0.01 (0.00–0.04) | [46] | 0.01 |
| M | 18/240 | 0.07 (0.04–0.12) | [46] | 0.07 | ||
| Sentinel chickenb | ||||||
| Dry African area | 0.14 (0.07–0.29) | [13] | 0.14 | |||
| Horsesc | ||||||
| Wet African area | 0.21 (0.20–0.22) | [14] | 0.24 | |||
| Dry African area | 0.19 (0.18–0.21) | [12] | 0.22 | |||
| European area | 0.04 (0.03–0.04) | [23] | 0.03 | |||
a
Observed seroprevalence in Djoud’j National park (Senegal, wet African area), Ferlo area (Senegal, dry African area), and Seville area (Spain, European area).