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Table III.

Comparison of the predicted values with seroprevalence data observed in African and European wild birds (used for model calibration), incidence data observed in African sentinel chickens and annual infection incidence estimated in African and European horses (used to compute bite relative risk in incidental hosts).

Animals Date Pop.d Observed or estimated data
Predicted data
Datae Rates (95% CIf) References
Wild birdsa
 Wet African area 15 Nov R 6/51 0.12 (0.04–0.24) [15] 0.10
M 6/201 0.03 (0.01–0.06) [15] 0.05
 Dry African area 1 Oct R+L 11/152 0.07 (0.04–0.13) [15] 0.07
 European area 15 Apr R 4/271 0.01 (0.00–0.04) [46] 0.01
M 18/240 0.07 (0.04–0.12) [46] 0.07
Sentinel chickenb
 Dry African area 0.14 (0.07–0.29) [13] 0.14
 Wet African area 0.21 (0.20–0.22) [14] 0.24
 Dry African area 0.19 (0.18–0.21) [12] 0.22
 European area 0.04 (0.03–0.04) [23] 0.03

Observed seroprevalence in Djoud’j National park (Senegal, wet African area), Ferlo area (Senegal, dry African area), and Seville area (Spain, European area).


Observed incidence rate in Ferlo area (Senegal, dry African area).


Annual incidence rates estimated from age-specific seroprevalence data collected in Senegal river valley (Senegal, wet African area), Ferlo area (Senegal, dry African area), and Var area (France, European area).


Pop.: population, R: residents, M: long distance migrants, and L: local migrants.


Number positive and number tested.


Confidence interval.