Open Access

Table I.

Model variables, distributions, and information sources.

Model variable Distribution Information sourcea
PR Canada Gamma(1.7, 1)/Normal(6.6 × 106, 1.68 × 105) [2, 3, 1618]
PR Philippine Gamma(331.4, 1)/Normal(1.5 × 106, 8.0 × 104) Note3
PR Thailand Gamma(82.5, 1)/Normal(6.1 × 106, 4.0 × 104) Note3
PR USA Gamma(40.9, 1)/Normal(1.34 × 108, 9.2 × 106) [2, 3, 1618]
IM Canada Lognormal(131.6, 17.13) BAPHIQb
IM Philippine Exponential(85.2) BAPHIQb
IM Thailand Exponential(287.2) BAPHIQb
IM USA Lognormal(371.42, 112.69) BAPHIQb
PRs Beta(1, 149)c [25]
VC Triangle(0.56, 0.89, 1) [14]
VP (Beta(23, 4) + Beta(27, 5))/2 [1]
PB Uniform(0, 1)
PR1 (VC × PB)/Totald
PR2 (VC × (1 − VP) × (1 − PB))/Totald
PR3 (1 − VC)/Totald
PT 1−(Log-logistic(0, 3.2221, 1.2429)/SEC)/Ne BAPHIQb
SEC Pert(0.1, 0.5, 0.9)c Expert’s opinion
SPT Beta(31, 5) [6]
PC Log-logistic(0, 5.2118, 3.3618)/Ne BAPHIQb
I Log-logistic(14, 39.3, 2.02) Note4
PE Pert(0.01, 0.5, 0.95)c Expert’s opinion
N Uniform(100, 3075)c BAPHIQb
Ns Exponential(39)/PEc BAPHIQb
a

Corresponding publications are listed in the references.

b

Data provided by the Bureau of Animal and Plant Health Inspection and Quarantine.

c

Different values were examined for sensitivity analysis.

d

Sum of the numerators of PR1, PR2, and PR3.

e

Truncated to contain the value between 0 and 1.