Issue |
Vet. Res.
Volume 41, Number 1, January-February 2010
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Number of page(s) | 11 | |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/vetres/2009059 | |
Published online | 13 October 2009 | |
How to cite this article | Vet. Res. (2010) 41:11 |
DOI: 10.1051/vetres/2009059
A quantitative risk assessment model to evaluate effective border control measures for rabies prevention
Hsin-Yi Weng1, Pei-I Wu2, Ping-Cheng Yang3, Yi-Lun Tsai4 and Chao-Chin Chang51 Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 S. Lincoln Ave., Urbana, IL 61802, USA
2 Bureau of Animal and Plant Health Inspection and Quarantine, Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, Taiwan, Republic of China
3 Animal Technology Institute, Taiwan, Republic of China
4 Graduate Group in Epidemiology, University of California Davis, Davis, CA 95616, USA
5 Graduate Institute of Microbiology and Public Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, National Chung Hsing University, 250 Kuo Kuang Rd., Taichung 40227, Taiwan, Republic of China
Received 13 May 2009; accepted 12 October 2009; published online 13 October 2009
Abstract - Border control is the primary method to prevent rabies
emergence. This study developed
a quantitative risk model incorporating stochastic processes to evaluate
whether border control measures
could efficiently prevent rabies introduction through importation of cats and
dogs using Taiwan as an
example. Both legal importation and illegal smuggling were investigated. The
impacts of reduced quarantine
and/or waiting period on the risk of rabies introduction were also
evaluated. The results showed that Taiwan's
current animal importation policy could effectively prevent rabies
introduction through legal importation
of cats and dogs. The median risk of a rabid animal to penetrate current
border control measures and enter
Taiwan was 5.33 10-8 (95th percentile: 3.20
10-7).
However, illegal smuggling may pose Taiwan to the
great risk of rabies emergence. Reduction of quarantine and/or waiting
period would affect the risk differently,
depending on the applied assumptions, such as increased vaccination
coverage, enforced custom checking,
and/or change in number of legal importations. Although the changes in the
estimated risk under the assumed
alternatives were not substantial except for completely abolishing
quarantine, the consequences of
rabies introduction may yet be considered to be significant in a rabies-free
area. Therefore, a comprehensive
benefit-cost analysis needs to be conducted before recommending these
alternative measures.
Key words: rabies / importation / risk assessment / quarantine / animal
Corresponding author: changcc@dragon.nchu.edu.tw
© INRA, EDP Sciences 2009