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Table IV.
Estimation of transmission parameters with 95% confidence intervals, based on different assumptions on the infectious period of pigs.
| Transmission parameter | Virus strain and inoculation dose1 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoelen – 105 TCID50 | Paderborn middle – 103.5 TCID50 | Paderborn high – 105 TCID50 | Brescia – 102.5 TCID50 | |||||
| β (day−1) | ||||||||
| Assumption 1 (faeces)2 | 0c | (0–2.74) | 5.38b | (2.11–12.2) | 2.83b,c | (1.17–5.84) | 27.5a | (10.2–63.0) |
| Assumption 2 (OPF/faeces)3 | 0c | (0–0.144) | 5.38a | (2.11–12.2) | 1.62b | (0.685–3.23) | 2.07a,b | (0.881–4.05) |
| Assumption 3 (viraemia)4 | 0b | (0–0.203) | 3.23a | (1.33–6.74) | 1.14a | (0.486–2.24) | 3.00a | (1.27–5.96) |
| Ti (day) | ||||||||
| Assumption 1 (faeces) | –5 | (– – –) | 26.2a | (17.4–42.6) | 21.2a | (13.4–34.5) | 7.39b | (5.54–9.99) |
| Assumption 2 (OPF/faeces) | 6.33b | (4.69–8.69) | 27.5a | (18.4–43.7) | 22.2a | (16.2–31.9) | 8.47b | (6.17–11.8) |
| Assumption 3 (viraemia) | – | (– – –) | 24.4a | (17.5–36.8) | 21.8a | (16.7–30.3) | 8.38b | (6.34–11.2) |
| SD6 of Ti (day) | ||||||||
| Assumption 1 (faeces) | – | (– – –) | 12.8a | (7.33–21.6) | 13.0a | (8.14–20.9) | 3.22b | (2.15–5.67) |
| Assumption 2 (OPF/faeces) | 1.23b | (0.648–3.82) | 13.2a | (7.63–21.8) | 9.32a | (5.81–16.5) | 4.06b | (2.71–7.11) |
| Assumption 3 (viraemia) | – | (– – –) | 10.6a | (6.27–18.9) | 7.99a | (4.90–14.8) | 3.54b | (2.36–6.13) |
| R0 | ||||||||
| Assumption 1 (faeces) | – | (– – –) | 141a | (50.6–367) | 60.0a | (22.5–145) | 203a | (73.2–488) |
| Assumption 2 (OPF/faeces) | 0c | (0–0.925) | 148a | (53.8–382) | 35.9b | (14.5–77.6) | 17.5b | (7.13–36.9) |
| Assumption 3 (viraemia) | – | (– – –) | 78.8a | (30.7–181) | 24.8a | (10.2–52.0) | 25.1a | (10.3–52.8) |