Deterministic age-structured SI model for within-flock spread

Deterministic SIRS model for spread between flocks

Deterministic model for transmission to human population

Public health risk from ovine BSE are likely to be greater than from cattle

Risk could be reduced through additional restrictions on sheep products entering the food chain

Upper bound for vCJD cases increases to 150 000 when worst-case ovine BSE scenario included in predictions

Age- and genotype-structured within-farm model used to estimate the exposure of humans to infectivity from BSE-infected sheep entering the food chain

Assumes constant number (4) of BSE-affected flocks in GB

If BSE were present in the GB national flock, the exposure to consumers from a single infected sheep would be high

Annual exposure from four BSE-affected flocks could be considerable

Small reductions in exposure can be achieved by strategies based on tissue testing, a 12-month age restriction or expanded definitions of high-risk tissues

A 6-month age restriction is more effective

Genotype-based restrictions are most effective

Age- and genotype-structured model to predict size of feed-borne epidemic

Flock-level model to predict impact of horizontal transmission on epidemic

See also [51] (Tab. II)

Feed-borne epidemic peaked in 1990 with between 10 and 1 500 infected sheep

In 2001, at most 20 clinical cases of BSE would be expected

If horizontal transmission occurs, it could cause a large epidemic

Age- and genotype-structured model for feed-borne epidemic

Deterministic model for flock-to-flock transmission

See also [51, 54]

Predictions for size of feed-borne epidemic not affected if ARR/ARR animals can become infected

Selective breeding for ARR/ARR should control a BSE epidemic, but there are scenarios consistent with the data in which control fails