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Table I.

Sensitivity and specificity of MCMC P values for each prediction method (full = full posterior predictive method, mix 1 and mix 2 = mixed predictive methods 1 and 2 respectively) compared to MCMC P values for cross validation, at different P value thresholds (as specified).

Cross validation
Total Sens (%) Spec (%)
0 1
P value > 0.90 or < 0.10
 full 0 86 14 100 17.6 100.0
1 0 3 3
Total 86 17 103
 mix 1 0 84 3 87 82.4 97.7
1 2 14 16
Total 86 17 103
 mix 2 0 86 10 96 41.2 100.0
1 0 7 7
Total 86 17 103
P value > 0.95 or < 0.05
 full 0 93 8 101 20.0 100.0
1 0 2 2
Total 93 10 103
 mix 1 0 90 5 95 50.0 96.8
1 3 5 8
Total 93 10 103
 mix 2 0 93 7 100 30.0 100.0
1 0 3 3
Total 93 10 103
P value > 0.975 or < 0. 025
 full 0 98 5 103 0.0 100.0
1 0 0 0
Total 98 5 103
 mix 1 0 98 2 100 60.0 100.0
1 0 3 3
Total 98 5 100
 mix 2 0 98 4 102 20.0 100.0
1 0 1 1
Total 98 5 103