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Table V.
The probability of detection (CSe) of HPAI H5N1 by different methods of wild waterbird surveillance, if infection was present in wild waterbirds on Lake Constance at 1%, 5% and 0.1% prevalence (P*u) from September 2006 to August 2007. Probabilities are shown as proportions and not percentages. The mode is shown with 5th and 95th percentiles in brackets.
| P*u | 1% | 5% | 0.1% | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September–April | Bycatch | 0.01 | (0.01–0.02) | 0.06 | (0.04–0.08) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) |
| Trap | 0.03 | (0.02–0.04) | 0.12 | (0.10–0.20) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | |
| Swan Catch | 0.00 | (0.00–0.02) | 0.07 | (0.02–0.09) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | |
| Found dead | 0.30 | (0.14–0.53) | 0.95 | (0.52–0.98) | 0.03 | (0.01–0.07) | |
| Hunt | 0.01 | (0.01–0.03) | 0.09 | (0.03–0.15) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | |
| Sentinel | 0.73 | (0.43–0.89) | 1.00 | (0.94–1.00) | 0.12 | (0.05–0.20) | |
| May–August | Bycatch | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | 0.01 | (0.00–0.01) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) |
| Trap | 0.08 | (0.06–0.11) | 0.42 | (0.28–0.45) | 0.01 | (0.01–0.01) | |
| Swan Catch | 0.03 | (0.01–0.08) | 0.32 | (0.04–0.34) | 0.01 | (0.00–0.01) | |
| Found dead | 0.37 | (0.19–0.66) | 1.00 | (0.64–1.00) | 0.04 | (0.02–0.10) | |
| Hunt | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | 0.00 | (0.00–0.00) | |
| Sentinel | 0.56 | (0.33–0.80) | 1.00 | (0.86–1.00) | 0.08 | (0.04–0.15) | |