Model selection results to identify candidate models best explaining observed spatial and temporal patterns of HPAI subtype H5N1 outbreaks in Romanian villages, 2005–2006. The models incorporated various combinations of temporal (Time), spatial (Space), and unstructured heterogeneous (Het) variation. Time represents the week of an observed outbreak within villages for each of the 23 counties that experienced outbreaks, Space is the spatial random effect, and Het is the unstructured variation in the model, pD = effective number of parameters, DIC = Deviance Information Criteria, wDIC = DIC weight that informally quantifies model selection uncertainty.
|1||Space + Het + Time + Space × Time||33.0||789.71||0.985|
|2||Space + Time + Space × Time||36.0||798.13||0.015|
|3||Space + Het + Time||19.3||949.41||0|
|4||Het + Time||19.3||949.51||0|
|5||Space + Time||21.3||954.16||0|
|7||Space + Het||18.44||1076.27||0|