Free access
Issue
Vet. Res.
Volume 35, Number 1, January-February 2004
Page(s) 53 - 68
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/vetres:2003046
How to cite this article Vet. Res. (2004) 53-68
Vet. Res. 35 (2004) 53-68
DOI: 10.1051/vetres:2003046

A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission

Régis Pouillot, Barbara Dufour and Benoît Durand


(Received 21 November 2002; accepted 3 July 2003)

Abstract - In France, the considerable economic losses due to paratuberculosis introduction in cattle herds may justify the development of a herd-level certification procedure. For a cost/benefit analysis purpose, a simple deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission has been developed to evaluate the economic consequences of the purchase of a single infected heifer in a French average herd. The values of the epidemiological parameters were provided by a panel of French paratuberculosis experts. The results were in adequacy with field observations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted. The model was however difficult to validate rigorously, since few data on the intra-herd paratuberculosis true prevalence level are currently available.


Key words: paratuberculosis / stochastic model / deterministic model / sensitivity analysis

Corresponding author: Barbara Dufour bdufour@vet-alfort.fr

© INRA, EDP Sciences 2004