A deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmissionRégis Pouillot, Barbara Dufour and Benoît Durand
(Received 21 November 2002; accepted 3 July 2003)
Abstract - In France, the considerable economic losses due to paratuberculosis introduction in cattle herds may justify the development of a herd-level certification procedure. For a cost/benefit analysis purpose, a simple deterministic and stochastic simulation model for intra-herd paratuberculosis transmission has been developed to evaluate the economic consequences of the purchase of a single infected heifer in a French average herd. The values of the epidemiological parameters were provided by a panel of French paratuberculosis experts. The results were in adequacy with field observations. A sensitivity analysis was conducted. The model was however difficult to validate rigorously, since few data on the intra-herd paratuberculosis true prevalence level are currently available.
Key words: paratuberculosis / stochastic model / deterministic model / sensitivity analysis
Corresponding author: Barbara Dufour firstname.lastname@example.org
© INRA, EDP Sciences 2004